I was one such attendee that day. WP was not contesting in my constituency so I had to travel all the way to the east just to attend their rally. I do not consider myself a staunch WP supporter, just a first time voter who agreed with some of their ideas and wanted to experience their rallies for myself. I found myself among folks from all walks of life, many either wearing the party blue or toting toy hammers (the party symbol), in a field surrounded by public flats. The crowd was just as thick and vibrant as the news so often portrayed.
People exploded into cheers upon the arrival of some WP veterans, as if they were rock stars. The veterans wasted no time introducing new candidates. The crowd listened as the candidates made their introductory speeches, punctuating their speeches with roars of laughter at their witty remarks or loud boos whenever the ruling People's Action Party was criticized. The candidates themselves spoke with aplomb, eloquence and even a slight hint of swag. One candidate, Mr Gurmit Singh, jibed "Some of our senior PAP politicians are still scratching their heads, not knowing why Singaporeans are so angry with them." Touching his bald head, he continued "Maybe if they shave their heads bald, they can scratch better!" The crowd chortled, clapped and tooted horns. I left after Singh's speech, impressed by the energy and sheer size of WP's support. This party is definitely a force to be reckoned with, I thought. So did many others. It was widely believed that WP would make further inroads into parliament and increase the possibility of a two-party political system.
Little did so many of us realize that we would be the ones scratching our heads in shock when the Polling Day results were finally announced. Confidence turned into confusion and then into shock, as people nationwide tuning into the live coverage of the announcement of sample count results saw that the PAP was leading by substantial margins in almost every constituency. We remained glued to the TV, waiting to see if the final vote counts would differ much from the sample vote counts. The night of September 11 made way for the wee hours of September 12. Finally, at about 3 a.m, the unbelievable was confirmed: there was an unexpected and significant swing of votes in favor of PAP. PAP won 69.9% of the national vote share, a vastly improved 9 percentage point increase from a historic low of 60.1% share of votes during the 2011 elections. The 9 opposition parties were beaten substantially at almost every constituency they contested in.
WP? It kept its stronghold of Hougang but not by a large margin, very nearly lost Aljunied to a group of rookie PAP candidates and lost Punggol East to the PAP.
It was a turn in history all right. Just not the one that many, even the PAP, was expecting.
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| The aftermath: That little patch of blue on the eastern side of Singapore is the area won by WP. |
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If there is one lesson from this election that was delivered as sharp as a slap, it would have to be that expectations and realities can be so vastly different.
Over the past few days, a variety of reasons have been suggested to explain both the unexpected swing in PAP's favor and the significant drop in votes experienced by all opposition parties. Here's my take:
It starts with fear. Not fear of the PAP, but fear of life without it. My best mate and I were discussing the election results the other day and she pointed out that most Singaporeans had lived their whole lives with the PAP as the government (PAP has been in power for more than 5 decades). Sure, Singaporeans grumble and complain and criticize the PAP a lot, but even at the nadir of its popularity with the masses, the PAP still returned to power with 60.1% of the national vote share in 2011. Whether we like to admit it or not, the PAP has been a major influence (for good and bad) in the development of Singapore society, starting from those tumultuous post-independence years to the thoroughly modern present that is the envy of so many other countries.
Singaporeans are also generally risk-averse. People do want change ... just not too radically. The 2011 elections saw WP keeping its Hougang stronghold, wresting Aljunied from a team of 5 PAP politicians that included the then-foreign minister, and gaining a total of 6 seats in parliament. WP later gained 1 more seat after the 2013 by-election in Punggol East. Given how much progress WP had been making over recent years, it was easy to believe that they'd make even more significant inroads this election. Indeed, WP's rallies (and to a lesser extent, the Singapore Democratic Party's rallies) had impressive turnouts. At some point, some folks must have gotten a tad nervous about WP's and the other opposition parties' rise. What if these guys became too successful this election? Indeed, before Polling Day, I did hear of people warning one another to be careful with their votes.
In the end, perhaps it's better the devil you know than the devil you don't. PAP's governance may be controversial at times, but on the municipal level the town facilities generally run quite smoothly and efficiently while on the national level the economy is generally strong. On top of that, the PAP has seen Singapore through its growth as a nation and been in power for so long that few can imagine life with significantly less PAP influence. A lot of people appreciate this stability associated with PAP. My Ma told me many people her age highly value a stable life to grow old and raise their families, so they would vote for PAP even if they have some grouses. This group is therefore less likely to buy abstract ideas like the importance of greater political representation because such things were never high on their list of priorities anyway.
So, why the massive displays of support for WP and a few other opposition parties, if people prefer to stick with PAP? Many commentators believe that for all the enthusiastic displays of support at the opposition rallies, perhaps opposition supporters are just the vocal minority. I am not very convinced of the vocal minority theory. First, it is hard to quantify a minority/ majority. The massive crowds turning up at the opposition rallies meant diddly squat in the end, because the large numbers did not translate into actual votes when they mattered the most! Secondly, how do you qualify support? Is a "real" opposition party supporter one who faithfully attends rallies, reads the party manifesto and helps with campaigning? How about those people who diss PAP online and profusely express their admiration for the opposition a.k.a the "keyboard warriors"? If I believe in the idea of greater political diversity in parliament but do not dislike PAP per se, do I count? Nuances, nuances, nuances.
Certainly, people today are more open about supporting non-PAP parties than in the past. People used to be afraid that voting for the opposition or being openly associated with them would negatively affect their careers or opportunities in life. This perception is less common these days. The opposition parties were even able to capitalize on the general unhappiness towards government policies during the 2011 elections and garner more support.
Where I believe many opposition parties, especially WP, slipped up this election is that they bit off more than they could chew. They forgot the Singapore psyche: strong preference for stability, risk-averse and never truly knowing a life with no or very little PAP influence. WP in particular sought to establish itself more strongly in parliament. There was so much buzz about WP expanding its presence in the eastern part of Singapore: they had their eyes on Fengshan and East Coast so these were hyped up in the media as the fights to watch. Some WP veterans even spoke of forming an alternative government in the future. The realities of the election results brought those ambitions crashing down hard: Fengshan and East Coast were not such tough fights and PAP won by comfortable margins. The tough fight really happened in Aljunied, where a PAP 'B' team of rookie candidates dubbed the "suicide squad" very nearly wrested Aljunied from the hands of WP's battle-hardened leaders. In the end, WP chairperson Sylvia Lim acknowledged in a post-election interview that perhaps the majority of Singaporeans preferred the PAP as government, resulting in a push back against the strong contest put up by the opposition parties.
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| A scene from Prime Minister Lee's lunchtime rally. My first time at a PAP rally. |
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This election exposed a great gap between people's expectations and the realities on the ground.No doubt there'd be a great deal of soul-searching for both camps, especially WP. It will be interesting to see how PAP, the opposition parties and Singapore society as a whole evolves from here.
(Photo credit: Map of electoral constituencies taken from Mothership.sg, photo of PAP rally taken by me)
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